Assessment of Land Use Strategies for Economic and Environmental Sustainable Development: Applications Linking Global and Taiwan Computable General Equilibrium Models
Associate Prof. Huey-Lin Lee
Land resources play myriad roles in human economic activities—it is a key input for the production of diverse goods and services which offer non-market free ecosystem services to support social amenities. Economic development has, to a large extent, been shaping the pattern of land use change. Sustainable development of the economy and the society requires land resources and ecosystem services to be well managed and functioning. Following the call of International Council for Science (ICSU) for academic research on constructing the Integrated Spatial Decision Support Systems, our modeling project aims to integrate economic activities and land use change, thus to conduct a systemic assessment for national land use policy.
Like many other developing countries, Taiwan faces the challenges of increasing economic globalization and urbanization. In such circumstances, scarce land resources turn out to be an intensifying land competition domestically. Particularly, Taiwan has become more susceptible to global changes, both biophysically and economy-wise due to the high dependency on exports. In this project, we aim to construct a soft-linked global and a computable general equilibrium modeling module in Taiwan, which describes the interconnection between manufacturing sector and consumer group within and beyond the nations along with the resulted land use competition.
The model is to collaborate with other subprojects in this integrated assessment project to elaborate an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System for Taiwan. Our Integrated Spatial Decision Support System will serve as a land use policy assessment tool for both public and private sectors, by simulating the consequences of economic growth and land use change under various scenarios: global and internal changes in the biophysical, societal and economic environment, as well as coping strategies. Land management policy is crucial in guiding the economy towards efficient allocation of various land uses. The high specialization in economic production implies that manufacturing sectors are inter-dependent on one another. Therefore, it is important to recognize the inter-industry dependency between sectors during the resource allocation decision.
In the first year of this project, we incorporated the Input-Output Tables and the Land Inventory Data of Taiwan to form an environmentally extended Input-Output Account, which reveals the interdependence between manufacturing sectors that contribute to Taiwan’s economy and their associated demand for land resources. Based on this economy-wide framework, the hotspots of land use, as well as the “key sectors” in driving economic growth can be identified – which contribute to the derivation of land multiplier effect for all sectors. Given the existed endowment land, strategic management practices take the economic efficiency and practicality into account while reallocating the land resources. Based on the indicator from the approach developed, we identified sectors that suit the cooperation through some viable practices, such as intensification and import substitution – to facilitate efficient land resource management. The results will offer important insights for land management policy in the contemporary economy of specialization. In the subsequent years of the project, the economy-wide assessment model, i.e., the computable general equilibrium model will be applied further, to analyze varied scenarios such as world trade regime change, global environmental change, and domestic social and economic development in response to exogenous and internal perturbations.
因此，本研究擬建構一連結全球與台灣經濟體之可計算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)模型，描繪本國經濟體各生產及消費部門的活動及其引申的土地需求(包含農、工、商業及住宅用地需求)，並與整合計畫中各子計畫相互連結，組建呈現台灣特色的整合空間決策支援系統模型，以模擬台灣在面臨國內外自然及社會經濟情勢變遷情境下所受之經濟衝擊以及相應的土地利用變動，並評估相關因應政策對於降低經濟衝擊的效果。