Assessment of Land Use Strategies for Economic and Environmental Sustainable Development: Applications Linking Global and Taiwan Computable General Equilibrium Models

Associate Prof. Huey-Lin Lee

Land resources play myriad roles in human economic activities—it is a key input for the production of diverse goods and services which offer non-market free ecosystem services to support social amenities. Economic development has, to a large extent, been shaping the pattern of land use change. Sustainable development of the economy and the society requires land resources and ecosystem services to be well managed and functioning. Following the call of International Council for Science (ICSU) for academic research on constructing the Integrated Spatial Decision Support Systems, our modeling project aims to integrate economic activities and land use change, thus to conduct a systemic assessment for national land use policy.

Like many other developing countries, Taiwan faces the challenges of increasing economic globalization and urbanization. In such circumstances, scarce land resources turn out to be an intensifying land competition domestically. Particularly, Taiwan has become more susceptible to global changes, both biophysically and economy-wise due to the high dependency on exports. In this project, we aim to construct a soft-linked global and a computable general equilibrium modeling module in Taiwan, which describes the interconnection between manufacturing sector and consumer group within and beyond the nations along with the resulted land use competition.

The model is to collaborate with other subprojects in this integrated assessment project to elaborate an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System for Taiwan. Our Integrated Spatial Decision Support System will serve as a land use policy assessment tool for both public and private sectors, by simulating the consequences of economic growth and land use change under various scenarios: global and internal changes in the biophysical, societal and economic environment, as well as coping strategies. Land management policy is crucial in guiding the economy towards efficient allocation of various land uses. The high specialization in economic production implies that manufacturing sectors are inter-dependent on one another. Therefore, it is important to recognize the inter-industry dependency between sectors during the resource allocation decision.

In the first year of this project, we incorporated the Input-Output Tables and the Land Inventory Data of Taiwan to form an environmentally extended Input-Output Account, which reveals the interdependence between manufacturing sectors that contribute to Taiwan’s economy and their associated demand for land resources. Based on this economy-wide framework, the hotspots of land use, as well as the “key sectors” in driving economic growth can be identified – which contribute to the derivation of land multiplier effect for all sectors. Given the existed endowment land, strategic management practices take the economic efficiency and practicality into account while reallocating the land resources. Based on the indicator from the approach developed, we identified sectors that suit the cooperation through some viable practices, such as intensification and import substitution – to facilitate efficient land resource management. The results will offer important insights for land management policy in the contemporary economy of specialization. In the subsequent years of the project, the economy-wide assessment model, i.e., the computable general equilibrium model will be applied further, to analyze varied scenarios such as world trade regime change, global environmental change, and domestic social and economic development in response to exogenous and internal perturbations.

 

追求經濟與環境永續發展之土地利用策略評估: 連結全球與台灣可計算一般均衡經濟模型之應用分析

土地為人類安身立命及經濟活動所需之必要投入,其亦提供非市場性無償的生態系統服務。土地利用變遷肇因於人口及經濟發展過程中對自然及人造環境所造成的影響。而經濟與社會的永續發展則需仰賴土地與環境生態系統服務之正常運作以持續提供良好的基礎環境。由國際科學理事會所倡議的Future Earth計畫亦正積極鼓勵相關學術領域研究建構連結經濟與土地利用之整合空間決策支援系統,以協助各國在追求社會經濟發展過程中亦能在土地利用及規劃上採取正確且有效的策略,以確保環境的永續發展。

國土狹小的台灣面臨經濟體的高度全球化、國內快速都市化、各土地需求部門間之競爭深化,土地利用及空間規劃得當對於台灣在追求經濟及環境的永續發展上益顯重要。全球化使得台灣本土的土地利用,不管是農業或是工業用途,將無法自外於國際經濟發展的影響。氣候變異所致農作物產量波動,或是國際間產業鏈因各國政策之故而進行重組,與全球經濟緊密連結的台灣經濟體都將深受影響。

因此,本研究擬建構一連結全球與台灣經濟體之可計算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)模型,描繪本國經濟體各生產及消費部門的活動及其引申的土地需求(包含農、工、商業及住宅用地需求),並與整合計畫中各子計畫相互連結,組建呈現台灣特色的整合空間決策支援系統模型,以模擬台灣在面臨國內外自然及社會經濟情勢變遷情境下所受之經濟衝擊以及相應的土地利用變動,並評估相關因應政策對於降低經濟衝擊的效果。