Significant land use/cover change (LUCC), primarily induced by socioeconomic development (anthropogenic forcing) and global climatic/environmental change (natural forcing), can interact directly or indirectly with a region’s weather and climate phenomena. Some of the phenomena could develop into extremely dangerous disasters, which might further increased by continuous LUCC, potentially encumbering the sustainable management ideology of a nation. Taiwan is a representative country devoted to sustainable management, but meanwhile it has been experiencing tremendous LUCC as well as notable increases in frequency and severity of flooding, drought and landslide disasters since last two decades. Thus, this project mainly focuses on “Modeling Dynamic Changes and Mechanisms of Land Systems”, which can be divided into three categories: policy, modeling, and promotion of land sustainability. Furthermore, this intends to build sustainable platform to bring land scientists working together. Seven sub-projects included will be implemented within three years
|First year||Project explores the Taiwan cities, villages, land slopes, coastal areas of the dynamic changes and mechanisms of land systems. Analyze the land system dynamic changes with atmosphere, economy, cross-domain governance remote link mechanism, integration of economic and policy aspects of land use prediction, and preparation of the land resources toughness.|
|Second year||Project forecasts the possible situation of land use change, uses quantifying uncertainty method to assess any of the uncertainties. Completes the CLUE-s literature review, and uses CLUE-s to go through three scenarios to select the spatial analysis figures of land use suitability to predict future land use and build quantifying uncertainty of GIS model.|
|Third year||The interactive verification between projects were made to discuss a number of driving forces, with the aim to integrate the projects and to build a complete mode of GIS model, the CLUE-s optimization model is applied to estimate the future land use change in the selected research area.|
In total seven sub-projects are included in this study, the main project is responsible for integrated research, as well as to amalgamate the sub-projects. The seven sub-projects and principal investigators are listed below:
|Sub-Project List||Principal Investigator|
|1||Modeling Dynamic Changes and Mechanisms of Land Systems||PI|
|Dr. Yu-Pin Lin,|
Dr. Shiau-Yun Lu
|2||A study of land cover change and its environmental index application||Co-PI||Dr. Lin, Chao-yuan|
|3||Urban Land Use Change and Resilient City Land Use Management in Taiwan||Co-PI||Dr. Hsiao-Lan Liu|
|4||Rural Land Use Change and Make Resilience Rural Land Use Management in Taiwan||Co-PI|
|Dr. Chen-Fa Wu|
Dr. Feng-Tyan Lin
|5||Assessment of Land Use Strategies for Economic and Environmental Sustainable Development: Applications Linking Global and Taiwan Computable General Equilibrium Models||Co-PI||Dr. Huey-Lin Lee|
|6||Interactions between Taiwan’s Land-Use/Cover Change and Regional Atmospheric and Hydro-Meteorological Modeling and Large-Scale Climate Variability||Co-PI||Dr. Chia-Jeng Chen|
|7||Theorization of De-territorialized Environmental Risk Assemblage under the Context of East Asian Industrial Land Process- A Scalar Perspective of “Built Environment in the Urban” and “Earth Force in the Region”||Co-PI||Dr. Shiuh-Shen, Chien|
Sub-project 1 adopts Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-s) model to estimate the distribution of land use types and their current circumstances in Taiwan. As the upper bound of land demand, Sub-project 1 will carry out the study on dynamics changes and mechanisms of land systems, thus to quantify and simulate scenarios through the developed model. Sub-projects 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 conduct studies on the driving factors of land use change, the causality between economic and land, interactions between atmosphere and land use, the research results will support the investigation of Sub-project 1. Simultaneously, the dynamic changes and mechanism of land systems model developed in Sub-project 1 will contribute to Sub-project 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 to forecast and future land use change, and to simulate the land resilience and appropriate management strategies. Last but not least, the forecast results will be integrated by Sub-project 7, a qualitative environmental management and risk analysis will be carried out to further comprise the quantitative and qualitative research results, and establish a resilient land use management strategy for future development assessment.
This integrated project is constituted by varied disciplines: policy, economy, urban, rural, slope, coastal, atmospheric, and land patterns. The primary responsible of each sub-project and the construction of database are identified:
Sub-project 6 is responsible for environmental data collection and building the database; the main project itself will build the land use database and render the figures, which may include satellite imagery and the data that has or has not been digitazed; Sub-project 5 is in charge of socioeconomic database; the policy database will be organized by Sub-project 7, including both domestic and international relevant policies; the research tools like GIS, satellite imagery software, statistical software and land use change model will be supported by the main project and Sub-project 1.
The cooperative model and integrated structure is shown as the diagram below.